Context (IE): Since 2016, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has been falling in China.
India overtook it as the most populous country in the world in 2023.
TFR is the number of children a woman, on average, is expected to bear in her lifetime.
Evolution of Birth Control Policy in China
For the First Chinese President, Mao Zedong, birth control was a concern but not of great importance.
Failure of the Great Leap Forward (1958-62) programme led to starvation and death of millions.
With the rolling back of the Great Leap Forward, the population bounced back.
The Great Leap Forward (1958-62) was a social and economic programme meant to increase production and improve the quality of life for all.
Five-Year Plans after the 1970s encouraged birth control and even coerced.
The One-child policy, introduced in 1980, restricted couples to having only one child.
The “Later, longer, and fewer” slogan encouraged delayed marriage, longer gaps in children and fewer children.
The One-child policy was questioned later not just over issues of privacy and the state’s overreach but also the need.
Reasons for the decline
China’s TFR (2020 Census) was 1.3 births per woman, way below the replacement rate of 2.1.
Replacement rate: Number of children per woman to replace inthe present generation in the future.
“One Child policy” claims to have reduced the TFR from 2.75 (1979) to 1.3 (2020) in China.
In 2016, the “One Child Policy” officially ended, and couples were allowed to have up to two children, which was later increased to three children in 2021.
Women’s education and employment allow them to make choices about their reproductive health.
Dejection from family life and customs is also one of the reasons.
High pressures of modern society, with increasing competition for jobs, are also factors leading to delayed marriage and no child.
COVID-19 pandemic deaths have also caused a decrease in the population.
Impact of declining population on China
The Working-age population has now fallen to 61% of the total population.
Greater investments in elderly care, including palliative care, are needed.
Pressure on the young population to support ‘dependents’ (Aged less than 15 or more than 59).
Vicious cycle of slowdown: An economic slowdown should mean young couples delay having children. The resulting decline in fertility rates eventually pushes the economy’s productivity rates lower.
Working-age population: Population between 15 to 59 years, seen as productive in an economy.
