Iran strikes in Iraq, Syria and Pakistan

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Context (IE | TH): Recently, Iran carried out air strikes in Iraq, Syria and Pakistan.

December 2023: Police station in Iran’s Sistan Baluchestan province was attacked by the Jaish al-Adl.
Senior adviser to Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was killed in an alleged Israeli air strike in a southern suburb of Damascus (Syria) in December 2023.
The Islamic State-Khorasan (the Afghanistan-based branch of the Islamic State terrorist group) claimed Kerman blasts in January 2024.

It launched missiles and kamikaze drones into Erbil, the capital of Iraq’s Kurdistan.
The IRGC claimed to have destroyed “an espionage centre” of Mossad, Israel’s external security agency.
Iran launched missiles into Syria’s Idlib, the northwestern region controlled by jihadists and rebels.
Iran carried out a surprise attack in Panjgur, a border town in Pakistan’s Balochistan, claiming to target the training camps of Jaish al-Adl.

Pakistan denounced the attack as a “blatant violation” of its airspace and UN charter.
It has recalled the country’s Ambassador to Iran.
Pakistan has launched retaliatory strikes, claiming to target “terrorist hideouts” in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchestan province.

What is Jaish al-Adl, which Iran claimed to target?

Jaish al-Adl, the “Army of Justice”, is a Sunni Salafist militant group.
It operates in the Baloch areas of Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.
It is an offshoot of Jundallah – a designated Foreign Terrorist Organisation by the US.
It aims for independence of the Sistan and Baluchestan provinces (known as Asli Balouchestan).

“Asli Balouchestan” refers to the southeastern corner of Iran and part of Pakistan’s Balochistan.

Ethnic groups of the Pakistani province of Balochistan and Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan provinces.
They speak the Balochi language with a unique cultural identity, different from ethnic Persians.
The Sunni Baloch minority in Iran has faced religious persecution by the Shia state, especially after the Revolution of 1979.
Moreover, Sistan and Baluchestan remain among the country’s poorest regions.

Iran: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Russia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Turkey.
Pakistan: Afghanistan, Iran, India. Pakistan does not border China (India’s Official Map).
Afghanistan: China, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Iran, India.

Iran Afghanistan Pakistan map

Pakistan targeted Iran-based hideouts of the Baloch Liberation Front (BLF) and the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) — both deemed as “terrorist organisations” by Pakistan.

It was founded by Jumma Khan Marri in Damascus, Syria, in 1964.
Carried out Baloch insurgency in Iran in 1968-73, then in Pakistan in 1973-78.
It moved to Afghanistan in the 1980s, with a resurgence in 2004 led by Allah Nazar Baloch.

Founded around 2000 and began a violent struggle for Baloch self-determination in Pakistan in 2004.
Currently led by Basheer Zeb.

Attacks on Pakistan: On civilians, journalists, government officials and military in Pakistan, Balochistan and beyond.
Attacks on Chinese personals: Both these Baloch militant groups target Chinese gas and infrastructure projects in Pakistan.
Alleged India connection: Pakistan has alleged that India provides arms, training, and financial aid to these groups.
Rejection by India: India and the militant groups reject such baseless claims.

Sulaiman Range lies in the East and South-East.
Central Makran Range and the Makran Coast Range to the south divide the coastal plain from the rest of the plateau.
Mountain Pass: Bolan pass, Khojak pass, Lak pass, Harnai pass, Gonshero pass etc.
Rivers: Bolan, Zhob, Hingol, Nari, Porali, Kud, Dasht etc.

Strait of Hormuz Makran desert Dasht e kavir dasht e lut Hindu kush

Dynamic elements: Terrorism, close ties with Israel, and deeper engagement with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are dynamic elements in Indian foreign policy.
Geopolitical impacts of Baluchistan’s strategic location cannot be ignored.
China’s presence in Gwadar complicates the situation for both India and the US.
Developmental projects in Iran and Afghanistan, including the Chabahar port, can be affected.

Organised crime: The ungoverned and under-governed spaces in the Baloch lands provide fertile ground for organised crime, posing a challenge to internal security.
Role of Taliban: In search of new friends in the region, the adventures of the Taliban may escalate.
Maritime security of India is being challenged by the attacks on its shipping in the Arabian Sea.
Jammu and Kashmir: Pakistan may escalate militancy in J&K to divert domestic attention.

An unstable Middle East with crucial shipping routes and resources impacts India’s economic interests.
Energy needs of India rely heavily on the oil-rich Gulf region, which is the centre of the conflict.