Tsangpo Dam: Impact on Security, Geopolitics & Environment

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China’s proposed construction of the world’s largest dam on the Yarlung Zangbo or Tsangpo (Brahmaputra in India) River in Medog County of the Tibetan Autonomous Region (TAR) presents one of the most serious challenges of the 21^st century.
This project will have a severe impact on the geopolitics of the region, the larger environment, and immediate water-cum-food security for downstream (lower riparian) nations, particularly India and Bangladesh. The absence of any bilateral water-sharing agreement between India and China adds complexity to an already precarious regional dynamic.

Source: Indian Express

Understanding Tsangpo Dam

Scale and Investment: The Tsangpo Dam is slated to be the world’s largest infrastructure project, with a staggering investment of $137 billion.
Location: Situated in a gorge where the Brahmaputra River makes a U-turn, flowing through Arunachal Pradesh and into Bangladesh.
Geographical Features: The Brahmaputra descends 25,154 feet across the Tibetan Plateau, forming the Earth’s deepest canyon.
Hydroelectric Potential: The lower reaches of the river exhibit a vertical drop of 2,000 meters over a 50 km stretch, holding an immense hydroelectric potential of nearly 70 million kilowatts. This is more than three times the installed capacity of China’s Three Gorges Dam (22.5 million kilowatts).
Power Generation: The Tsangpo Dam is expected to generate a colossal 60,000 MW (60 GW) of electricity, making it a key player in global energy production.

Geopolitical Impact of the Tsangpo Dam

Hydro-Hegemony by China

Control over Water Flow: China’s dominance over the upper Brahmaputra grants it substantial power over downstream countries, enabling it to regulate water availability at will.
Geopolitical Leverage: By building a dam of such magnitude, China could manipulate the timing and volume of water flowing into India, using this control to gain leverage in geopolitical negotiations.

India-China Rivalry

Exacerbating Tensions: The Tsangpo Dam deepens existing India-China tensions, already strained by issues such as border disputes (E.g., Doklam, Galwan) and China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
Increased Vulnerability: India’s heavy reliance on the Brahmaputra makes it highly susceptible to China’s actions, further amplifying the power imbalance in their bilateral relationship.

Strategic Use of Water Resources

Weaponisation of Water: Water is a strategic asset. China could manipulate the Brahmaputra’s flow, releasing or withholding water during conflicts to create floods or droughts in India, leveraging geopolitical power.
Territorialisation of Rivers: The dam could accelerate the territorialisation of rivers, heightening regional disputes over water rights and control.

Regional Implications for Bangladesh

Impact on Relations: As a downstream nation, Bangladesh is vulnerable to changes in river flow. If India is perceived as failing to address the impacts of China’s actions, it could strain India-Bangladesh relations.
Dam Construction Race: The project could trigger a rush to build dams along the river, threatening the ecosystem. India has already proposed a mega-dam in Upper Siang (11,000 MW) on a Brahmaputra tributary, escalating the issue.
Displacement of Marginalised Communities: These large-scale projects are likely to displace tribal and marginalised populations, further exacerbating social and environmental concerns.

Absence of a Legal Framework

Lack of Formal Agreement: Unlike the Indus Waters Treaty between India and Pakistan, there is no formal water-sharing agreement between India and China on the Brahmaputra.
Expired MoU: While an MoU for hydrological information during flood seasons was signed in 2002 and renewed several times, it expired in 2023 and remains unrenewed. These agreements are non-binding, with no mechanism to resolve disputes.
Ineffective Expert Level Mechanism: The Expert Level Mechanism (ELM) has been in place since 2006 to address water issues but has failed to resolve major disputes between the two nations.
Absence of Global Framework: Neither India, China, nor other riparian countries are signatories to the UN Watercourses Convention (1997), which governs use & conservation of international watercourses.

Environmental Consequences of the Tsangpo Dam

Ecosystem Disruption: Altering the Brahmaputra’s flow threatens habitats, species, and ecological balance, especially in the Eastern Himalayas Ecological Hotspot.
Sediment Flow Reduction: The dam would trap sediments, reducing fertility in downstream floodplains, harming agriculture and the livelihoods of communities in Assam and Bangladesh.
Natural Disaster Risk: Situated on a tectonic plate boundary, the dam could trigger earthquakes, landslides, or catastrophic failure, endangering millions downstream.
Climate Change Impacts: Large dams contribute to deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions, exacerbating climate change. Altered river dynamics may increase extreme weather events.
Water Pollution: Stagnant water behind the dam could accumulate pollutants, negatively impacting water quality for downstream populations.

Impact on Water and Food Security

Alteration of Water Flow: The dam will grant China control over the timing and rate of water release, disrupting agricultural cycles and drinking water availability in India.
Flood and Drought Risks: Mismanagement or deliberate manipulation of the dam’s operations could lead to severe floods during the monsoon or drought-like conditions during dry seasons.
Impact on Hydropower: Reduced water flow due to the dam may affect India’s hydropower projects in the Northeast, undermining energy security and economic development.
Dependence on China’s Data: India’s reliance on China for hydrological data about the Brahmaputra could hinder its preparedness for water-related challenges, especially with potential lack of transparency or accuracy.

Measures to Address the Challenges

Diplomatic Initiatives

Bilateral Negotiations: India must engage China diplomatically to establish a binding water-sharing agreement or at least a code of conduct for transboundary river management.
Confidence-Building Measures: Enhanced data-sharing on river flow and dam operations can reduce mistrust and promote cooperation.

Strengthening Regional Cooperation

Collaborate with Bangladesh to form a regional bloc advocating for equitable river management.
Encourage multilateral discussions under platforms like SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation), BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), AIIB (Asian Infrastucture and Investment Bank), SCO (Shangha Cooperation Organisation), etc. to address transboundary water challenges collectively.

Enhancing Domestic Preparedness

Water Storage Infrastructure: Develop reservoirs and water management systems in the Northeast to counteract disruptions in water flow.
Flood Control: Build embankments and improve flood forecasting systems to minimise the impact of unexpected water releases.

Leveraging International Forums

India can raise the issue of the Tsangpo dam at global platforms like the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) through climate negotiations and use its goodwill, highlighting the project’s environmental, economic and humanitarian risks on everyone around.
Advocate for adherence to international norms on transboundary rivers, such as the UN Watercourses Convention.

Environmental Advocacy

Conduct and publish detailed studies on the ecological risks of the dam to generate global awareness and pressure on China to reconsider its plans.
Collaborate with international environmental NGOs to amplify concerns.

Disaster Management and Risk Mitigation

Strengthen early warning systems (EWS) for floods and droughts caused by potential changes in river flow.
Invest in community-based disaster preparedness programs in vulnerable regions.

Scientific and Technological Interventions

Use satellite imagery and advanced hydrological modeling to monitor dam construction and assess its potential impacts on water flow.
Develop predictive tools to simulate the effects of altered water flow and plan adaptive measures.

Way Forward

Institutionalising a Water-Sharing Framework: Advocate for a legally binding India-China water-sharing treaty based on mutual trust and equitable river management, similar to the Indus Waters Treaty.
Regional Cooperation and Multilateral Advocacy: Establish a Brahmaputra River Basin Authority with Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Nepal to enhance regional water governance and jointly raise the issue in multilateral forums like the UN, BRICS, and G20.
Strengthening Hydrological Infrastructure: Build advanced water storage systems, flood control measures, and hydroelectric projects in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam to counteract disruptions and improve domestic water security.
Leveraging Technological Solutions: Deploy satellite monitoring systems, AI-based flood prediction tools, and real-time hydrological data sharing with downstream countries to mitigate risks effectively.
Global Environmental Advocacy: Engage international environmental organisations and forums to publicise ecological risks of the Tsangpo Dam, pressuring China to adopt sustainable & cooperative practices.

China’s Tsangpo Dam poses significant challenges to geopolitics, water security, and the environment. By proactively engaging in diplomacy, regional partnerships, and technological preparedness, India can safeguard its interests and promote equitable and sustainable management of transboundary rivers.

Reference: Indian Express

UPSC Mains PYQs – Theme – Transnational Rivers/ Water Diplomacy

The Indus Waters Treaty has stood the test of time, but recent developments have raised questions about its future. Critically examine the challenges and opportunities for India in this context.” (2016)
The Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna Basin plays a pivotal role in India’s water security. Analyse the challenges and suggest ways to strengthen transboundary water cooperation in the region. (2014)
The Teesta River dispute between India and Bangladesh remains unresolved. Discuss the key challenges and possible solutions for ensuring equitable water-sharing. (2013)
Discuss the impact of China’s hydro-engineering projects on the Mekong River and their implications for Southeast Asian countries. Highlight lessons India can learn for its transboundary water disputes. (2012)
India shares several transboundary rivers with its neighbors, yet water-sharing agreements remain contentious. Discuss the role of diplomacy in resolving these issues. (2010)

PMF IAS Pathfinder for Mains – Question 37

Q. Critically analyse the geopolitical, environmental, and water security implications of China’s Tsangpo dam project for India. Suggest measures to address the challenges. (250 Words) (15 Marks)

Approach

Introduction: Start with a brief introduction of the dam and different dimensions of the Issue like Geopolitical implications, Environmental implications and Water security concerns.
Body: Analyse the challenges and suggest measures to address the challenges related to the project.
Conclusion: Emphasise the need for a comprehensive, cooperative, and sustainable approach to transboundary river management.