Rising Tension in Korean Peninsula

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Context (TH): Provocative moves by North Korea and the rebuttals by South Korea are on the rise.

Korean Peninsula

38th parallel (38° N) roughly demarcates North Korea and South Korea.
Potsdam Conference (1945), near the end of World War II, chose it as the bifurcation border.

North Korea has rescinded its national objective of Korean reunification.
It has formally categorised South Korea as an adversarial state.
The supreme leader of North Korea, Kim Jong Un, ordered the rewriting of the North Korean constitution to reflect a shift in the regime’s thinking.
The closure of offices related to reunification and the destruction of Pyongyang’s reunification landmark monument raises the alarm.
North Korea tested multiple types of missile systems in January 2024.

Japan occupied Korea between 1910- 1945.
The bifurcation of the Korean Peninsula in the Yalta Conference (1945) was agreed upon by Allied powers as the result of the defeat of imperial Japan in World War II.
Ideological Cold War divide due to the influence of Soviet Union on North and U.S. over South Korea.
Korean War (1950-53): As a result of the North’s attempt to take over the South, war broke out.
Continued divide: Despite the cessation of active conflict and the end of the Cold War, the North authoritarian regime supported by China and South Korean liberal democracy is still in conflict.
North Korea’s nuclear ambitions are a bone of contention in the relations.

1994-2002: The U.S. signed an “Agreed Framework” with North Korea to halt its nuclear programme in return for nuclear energy.
Exit from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty in 2003 by North Korea.
Six-party talks involving the two Koreas, China, Japan, Russia, and the U.S. resulted in North Korea pledging to forego its nuclear ambitions.
Nuclear Test 2006: North Korea conducted a nuclear test in 2006 with questionable yield.
Breakdown of talk: In 2009, talks broke down, leading to a consistent increase in tests by North Korea.
Failed attempt at talks: Various attempts at “denuclearisation talks” between the US and North Korea in 2018-19 have failed.

Significant military developments: It has developed, tested and deployed delivery vehicles, launchers and satellites, arguably with intercontinental range.
Provocative actions: Military drills, shelling on South Korean islands and threats of nuclear attack are threats to global peace.
US support to South Korea: With the US military alliance and missile defence system, a confrontation cannot be ruled out.
Cyber-attacks across the globe have been traced to North Korea multiple times.