El Niño: Reasons, Implications & Challenges

IMD’s forecast of below-normal 2026 monsoon under El Niño conditions has intensified concerns over India’s agricultural and economic resilience.

About El Niño

Meaning: El Niño is a climate phenomenon characterised by abnormal warming of surface waters in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean.
Part of ENSO: It is one phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a global climate system affecting weather patterns.
Mechanism:
- El Niño occurs when weakened trade winds allow warm Pacific waters to move eastward, disrupting normal ocean circulation.
- This alters pressure systems (e.g., the Walker Circulation), leading to changes in global rainfall and temperature patterns.

Current Facts & Data

Rainfall Deficit: June 2026 rainfall stood at 99.5 mm against 165.3 mm LPA, a 39.8% deficit across all meteorological subdivisions.
IMD Forecast: July 2026 rainfall is expected to remain below 94% of LPA, indicating prolonged monsoon weakness.
Agricultural Dependence: Agriculture contributes nearly 18–20% of GVA, while 46% of India’s workforce depends on it.
Reservoir Levels: Live storage in 166 reservoirs stood at 47.7 BCM (July 2026) against 78.1 BCM during the same period last year.

Geographical Reasons for El Niño

Trade Winds: Weakening easterly trade winds allow warm Pacific surface waters to shift eastward, initiating El Niño conditions.
Warm Waters: Eastward movement of the western Pacific warm pool raises sea surface temperatures across the central Pacific.
Weak Upwelling: Reduced Humboldt Current upwelling limits cold, nutrient-rich waters, intensifying warming in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Walker Shift: Disrupted Walker Circulation shifts convection eastward, weakening monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent.
Positive Feedback: Ocean-atmosphere interactions reinforce warming, strengthening El Niño through the self-amplifying Bjerknes feedback mechanism.

Bjerknes Feedback Mechanism: A positive ocean–atmosphere feedback where weakened trade winds increase Pacific warming, which further weakens the winds, intensifying El Niño.

Economic Implications of El Niño

Agricultural Losses: Around 52% of India’s net sown area is rain-fed, making Kharif output highly vulnerable to weak monsoons.
Food Inflation: Agriculture supports 46% of India’s workforce, and lower crop production pushes up food inflation and CPI.
Growth Slowdown: Combined El Niño and drought conditions may reduce India’s GDP growth by 20–65 basis points.
Water Stress: 166 reservoirs stored only 47.7 BCM in July 2026, reducing irrigation, drinking water and hydropower availability.
Fiscal Pressure: The ₹41,533 crore Kharif 2026 fertiliser subsidy and higher imports may widen fiscal and current account deficits.

Governance & Policy Challenges

Institutional Coordination: Weak coordination among IMD, ICAR, NDMA and States delays timely drought response and contingency planning.
Food Buffer Management: Inadequate procurement, storage and timely release of FCI buffer stocks can aggravate food inflation during deficient monsoons.
Fiscal Constraints: Rising spending on fertiliser subsidies, PMFBY compensation, MGNREGS and relief packages strains public finances.
Forecast Utilisation: Limited last-mile dissemination of weather forecasts and crop advisories reduces farmers’ ability to make informed decisions.
Climate Policy Integration: Fragmented planning across agriculture, water, energy and disaster management weakens long-term climate resilience and adaptation.

Strategic Measures to Mitigate El Niño

Climate Agriculture: Promote drought-tolerant seeds, Shree Anna (millets) and climate-smart farming. Millets require nearly 70% less water than paddy.
Water Security: Expand PMKSY, micro-irrigation and watershed development. India has 111 highly vulnerable districts with weak irrigation infrastructure.
Forecast Integration: Link IMD and ICAR advisories with district crop planning. IMD has forecast below-normal rainfall (below 94% of LPA) for July 2026.
Economic Resilience: Strengthen PMFBY, buffer stocks and MGNREGS. Past El Niño episodes have reduced India’s GDP growth by 20–65 basis points.
Climate Adaptation: Scale up groundwater recharge, Mission Amrit Sarovar, wetland restoration and Heat Action Plans to reduce long-term climate vulnerability.

El Niño is a climatic inevitability, but economic distress is not. Building climate-resilient agriculture, water security and adaptive governance can transform vulnerability into resilience.

Reference: The Hindu

PMF IAS Pathfinder for Mains – Question 751

Q. Increasing El Niño variability is emerging as a major climate-induced economic risk for India. Examine its implications for India’s economy and suggest a comprehensive strategy for building long-term climate resilience. (250 Words) (15 Marks)

Approach

Introduction: Write a brief introduction about the El Niño’s Impact on India’s Economy.
Body: Write the reasons for increasing El Niño variability, also mention its implications for India’s economy and suggest a comprehensive strategy for building long-term climate resilience.
Conclusion: Emphasise climate-resilient agriculture, water security and adaptive governance to minimise El Niño risks and ensure sustainable economic growth.