Super El Niño and Global Impact

• A recent report from the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) & Copernicus indicates rising chances of El Niño this year, potentially a Super El Niño, amid record ocean temperatures globally.

About El Niño

• El Niño is a climate phenomenon characterised by abnormal warming of surface waters in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean.
• Part of ENSO: It is one phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a global climate system affecting weather patterns.
• Mechanism:
  • El Niño occurs when weakened trade winds allow warm Pacific waters to move eastward, disrupting normal ocean circulation.
  • This alters pressure systems (e.g., the Walker Circulation), leading to changes in global rainfall and temperature patterns.

Key Drivers of Super El Niño

• Ocean Warming: Record-high sea surface temperatures (March 2026, second-highest on record) are increasing heat energy in the Pacific, favouring El Niño intensification.
• ENSO Shift: Transition from La Niña to neutral conditions creates instability. NOAA notes such phases often precede El Niño development.
• Weakened Winds: Weakening trade winds reduce the westward push of warm waters, allowing eastern Pacific warming, a key trigger observed in past strong events like 1997–98.
• Climate Change: Rising greenhouse gas concentrations have increased ocean heat content, making recent El Niño events (2015–16) more intense than earlier ones.
• Feedback Loops: Bjerknes feedback strengthens warming by reinforcing ocean–atmosphere coupling, amplifying temperature anomalies beyond normal thresholds.

Impacts of Super El Niño

• Super El Niño is an intensified ENSO phase that amplifies global climate extremes, disrupts monsoons, and significantly impacts agriculture, economies, and ecosystems worldwide.

Global Level

• Climate Extremes: A Super El Niño intensifies global weather extremes, causing droughts & heatwaves simultaneously. E.g., 2015–16 saw record warming, Australian droughts, & South American floods.
• Crop Losses: It disrupts rainfall and monsoon systems, lowering staple crop yields and increasing food prices. E.g., US maize, Brazilian soybeans, and Southeast Asian rice were affected.
• Temperature Spike: It releases stored heat from the ocean into the atmosphere, driving global average temperatures to high levels. E.g., 1997–98 & 2015–16 El Niño years ranked among the hottest globally.
• Trade Disruption: Drought-induced low water levels in the Panama Canal slow shipping and raise global freight costs. E.g., 2023–24 drought reduced canal traffic to ~24 vessels/day.
• Ecosystem Damage: It causes ocean warming and drought stress, leading to coral bleaching and forest fires. E.g., Great Barrier Reef bleaching and Amazon wildfires during strong El Niño phases.

On India

• Monsoon Failure: Super El Niño weakens southwest monsoon rainfall, often causing drought conditions. E.g., 7 out of 10 El Niño years in India have seen below-normal monsoon rainfall.
• Crop Loss: Reduced rainfall cuts crop production of rice, pulses, and oilseeds. E.g., the 2023–24 El Niño led to about 6.1% decline in India’s agricultural output.
• Heatwaves Intensification: It increases pre-monsoon temperatures, intensifying heatwaves across India. E.g., North and central India regularly record prolonged heatwave spells during El Niño years.
• Water Stress: Lower monsoon reduces reservoir levels, affecting drinking water supply and hydropower generation. E.g., Maharashtra & Karnataka experience reservoir depletion during El Niño years.
• Inflation Rise: Crop losses raise food prices and inflation while slowing rural demand. E.g., El Niño years in India are often linked with higher food inflation and weaker growth.

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies

• Climate Agriculture: Adoption of drought-resistant crops like millets and the use of drip irrigation help reduce crop losses during El Niño-induced droughts.
• Early Warning: IMD and NOAA seasonal forecasts enable states like Maharashtra and Karnataka to prepare for monsoon variability in advance.
• Water Management: Reservoir planning and rainwater harvesting, such as rooftop systems in Chennai, help mitigate drought stress during weak monsoons.
• Disaster Planning: Heat Action Plans in Ahmedabad reduce heatwave deaths during El Niño-linked extreme summer temperatures.
• Global Cooperation: UNFCCC-led climate finance supports vulnerable nations, such as small island states, facing the impacts of floods and sea-level rise.

Super El Niño is not just a climate anomaly but a global risk multiplier, intensifying extremes and disrupting systems, demanding resilience, early warnings, and global cooperation, as “climate extremes are the new normal.”

Reference: The Pioneer

UPSC Mains PYQs – Theme – El Niño

1. [UPSC 2014 10M] Most of the unusual climatic happenings are explained as an outcome of the El Niño effect. Do you agree?

PMF IAS Pathfinder for Mains – Question 637

Q. “The increasing frequency and intensity of Super El Niño events indicate a changing climate regime.” Discuss the scientific basis of Super El Niño and evaluate its implications for India’s climate variability and disaster management. (250 Words) (15 Marks)

Approach

• Introduction: Write a brief introduction about the Super El Niño.
• Body: Write the scientific basis of Super El Niño, evaluate its implications for India’s climate variability and disaster management and way forward.
• Conclusion: Emphasis on a resilient and cooperative approach to reduce the impact of Super El Niño on the economy.