What is Bharat Forecast System?

• Context (TH): The India Meteorological Department will soon adopt the Bharat Forecast System (BFS), an indigenous advanced weather forecasting model.

About Bharat Forecast System

• Bharat Forecast System is developed by the Pune-based Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), powered by Arka, a new supercomputer at IITM with 11.77 petaflops computing speed and 33 petabytes storage.
  • Arka reduces forecasting run-time from 10 hours (previous Pratyush supercomputer) to ~4 hours.
• It integrates numerical weather prediction (NWP) with AI & machine learning for enhanced accuracy.
  • A Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model uses mathematical equations and computer simulations to forecast weather based on atmospheric physics and real-time observational data.
• It is based on the newly implemented Triangular Cubic Octahedral (TCo) dynamical grid & provides the world’s highest forecasting resolution of 6 km x 6 km grid, doubling the detail from the earlier 12 km Global Forecast System (GFS) used in India.
• It covers tropical regions between 30° South and 30° North latitudes, comfortably encompassing the Indian mainland (8.4°N to 37.6°N).
• It utilizes data from 40 Doppler Weather Radars nationwide; plans to increase to 100 radars for comprehensive nowcasts. (Nowcasts are short-term weather forecasts up to two hours ahead).
• It was developed to generate forecasts at the cluster of panchayats level and improve the prediction of extremes.

Advantages Over Previous Systems

• BFS provides finer spatial detail than global models by European, British, and US agencies, which offer 9-14 km resolution.
• More precise predictions enable better disaster management, agriculture planning, water resource management, and public safety measures.

Also refer to Localised Monson Forecasting.