Bangladesh Elections

Context (IE l IE l LM): Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina won the re-election for a fifth term.
The main opposition, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), boycotted the polls.
Western nations, including the US, UK, and EU, have urged Bangladesh to hold free, fair, and participatory elections.
The BNP demanded elections under a caretaker government, which the government rejected.
This election became a high-stakes arena because of several international interests–
1. India’s buffer state priorities
2. China’s Belt & Road vision
3. Strategic interests of the United States
4. Russian infrastructure interests.

Authoritarian Practices: The Awami League’s (AL) authoritarian measures, including arrests and harassment of opposition leaders, have fueled resentment among the masses.
Corruption and Nepotism: Perceived corruption and nepotism within the AL have widened the gap between the government and the impoverished population.
Islamist Influence: The AL encouragement of Islamist groups like Hefazat-e-Islam Bangladesh has created a toxic environment within the ruling party.
Radicalization: Islamist organisations, through religious schools and mosques, have radicalised a significant portion of the population, especially the youth.
Islamist Opposition: The Islamist parties, including Jamaat-e-Islami, Hefazat, and Islami Oikyo Jote, now fill the opposition space.
Political Analyst’s Perspective: Political analysts argue that the AL’s crackdown on the BNP has inadvertently strengthened Islamist parties, which seek to implement strict Sharia laws and turn Bangladesh into an Islamic state.
Economic Crisis: Falling forex reserves, currency depreciation, and mounting external debt have created a looming debt crisis.
Chinese Loans: Much of the infrastructure development relies on high-interest loans from China.

Election in Bangladesh and India’s Interests

A stable, prosperous and friendly Bangladesh is in India’s best interests.
The previous BNP-led government was quite hostile to India — and provided a haven to numerous anti-India terrorist and militant groups.
It allegedly also had links to Pakistan’s ISI.
The Present Government’s crackdown on anti-India elements and counter-terrorism cooperation with India has single-handedly improved India’s overall security situation over the last decade.
Bangladesh’s action resulted in the arrest of many top leaders of the NE insurgent groups like the ULFA and the National Democratic Front of Bodoland.
Also, Given the deteriorating situation in Myanmar, it becomes even more important that India and Bangladesh remain close security partners.

Bangladesh has replaced Pakistan as the second-largest economy in the South Asian region.
- As per World Bank data, the GDP of Bangladesh was $460 bn in 2022, and Pakistan’s was $375 bn.
In 2022-23, Bangladesh was the fifth largest export destination for Indian goods after the US, the UAE, the Netherlands, and China.
It accounted for over 2.7 per cent of all Indian exports, worth $12.2 billion.

Protocol on Inland Water Trade and Transit (PIWTT), operational since 1972, permits the movement of goods over vessels from India through Bangladesh’s river systems on 8 specific routes.
Under the present regime, Bangladesh facilitates efficient connectivity to India’s Northeast through overland transit and inland waterways.
Securing sea lines of communication: Bangladesh strategically places nearby essential sea lanes. It can play a significant role in containing piracy in the Indian Ocean.
Bangladesh is also crucial for economic integration within the subcontinent, especially since Pakistan refuses to support regional economic cooperation.
Bridge to Southeast Asia: Bangladesh is a natural pillar of the Act East policy.
- It can act as a ‘bridge’ to economic and political linkages with South East Asia and beyond.
- Bangladesh is an essential component of BIMSTEC and BBIN initiatives.
- Dhaka hosts the secretariat of The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), which connects Myanmar and Thailand.
Beyond the subcontinent, India wants Bangladesh to become a fulcrum for regional cooperation in the Bay of Bengal littoral linking South and South East Asia.
India’s friends, such as Japan, have invested heavily in Bangladesh.

Bangladesh’s two-way trade with China exceeded $25 billion in 2022.
Bangladesh aligns strategically with China, helping transform its landscape through mega projects.
Chinese investments in BRI-financed infrastructure projects have surpassed $10 billion.
Bangladesh has significant military relations with China, and it is the second-largest importer of Chinese arms.
- India, too, gave Bangladesh $500 million credit for defence imports.
Bangladesh has granted port access to India and China, fostering modernisation in Mongla port under the banners of the BRI and Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Corridor (BCIM).
- Pyra Port– A similar cooperative enhancement was undertaken, but India backed out due to the PPP being granted to a Chinese company.
There are around $450 million of Chinese investments into 1,845 MW of domestic power generation as of 2021.

Bangladesh has had tense relationships with the US and the UK, given their proximity to Pakistan and their damaging role in 1971.
The present regime unsurprisingly views the US with tremendous distrust.
The US has been relatively inconsistent regarding calling out authoritarianism. While the Americans seldom talk about democracy in Pakistan, they tend to bully Bangladesh.
The US has begun to appreciate India’s interests in Bangladesh (After the G20 Summit) and is toning down its hostility toward Dhaka.