India’s Conundrum with China

Table of contents

India and China, the two civilisational giants of Asia, share an approx. 4,000-km-long border that remains divided by strategic mistrust, historical baggage, and geopolitical rivalry. Despite multiple rounds of dialogue and diplomatic engagements, China’s recent behaviour—especially post-Galwan—reflects a shift from “coexistence” to “assertion.”
As former NSA M.K. Narayanan argues, India’s China dilemma lies not merely in border tension but in multi-layered strategic asymmetries that shape a complex and evolving conundrum.

Credit: EurasianTimes

The Evolving Nature of Chinese Assertiveness

From Deng to Xi: Strategic Shift

Deng Xiaoping advocated a low-profile foreign policy under the principle “Hide your strength, bide your time.” His focus was economic modernisation and integration with the global economy.
Xi Jinping, however, marks a clear departure. His approach emphasises assertive nationalism, military modernisation, and the “Chinese Dream” of national rejuvenation, with ambitions to achieve global leadership by 2049.

Civilizational Psychology and Regional Ambitions

China’s assertiveness is driven by a desire to reverse the Century of Humiliation and restore its historical dominance in Asia. This mindset influences its external behavior:
- Border Confrontations: Examples include Doklam (2017) and Galwan (2020).
- Salami-Slicing Tactics: Incremental territorial encroachments in Ladakh and the South China Sea.
- Cartographic Aggression: Release of maps claiming Arunachal Pradesh and Aksai Chin (2023).

India’s Multi-Dimensional China Conundrum

Territorial Disputes & Military Stand-offs: India and China have faced border conflicts, including Depsang, Doklam, and Galwan. Despite 19 rounds of talks, China hasn’t restored the pre-2020 status.
- The 2024 “Patrolling Agreement” provides only token progress without substantial troop withdrawals.
Asymmetry in Defence and Technology: China’s defence budget is about three times India’s, with a widening technological edge in cyber warfare, AI, and hypersonics. In contrast, India’s defence spending is under 2% of its GDP, exacerbating the strategic gap.
Encirclement Through Strategic Infrastructure: China’s “String of Pearls” strategy, with projects in Gwadar, Hambantota, Chittagong, and Djibouti, encircles India, enhancing China’s regional influence and posing a security challenge.
Geopolitical Ambiguity and Strategic Disunity: India’s involvement in QUAD and I2U2, along with BRICS and SCO, reflects a lack of cohesive strategy towards China, diluting its diplomatic messaging and weakening its stance.
Neglected Neighbourhood Policy: China’s influence in South Asia, through initiatives like CPEC in Pakistan and support for regimes in Bangladesh, Nepal, and Myanmar, undermines India’s “Neighbourhood First” policy, which lacks consistent backing.

Assessing the Military and Technological Divide Between India and China

Dimension	India	China
Defence Budget (2025-26)	~2% of GDP	Increased by 7.2% YoY; ~3× India’s defence allocation
Troop Deployment (Ladakh)	Tactical & rotational deployments	Over 1 lakh troops with heavy mechanised support
Nuclear Warheads	~160 warheads (SIPRI estimate)	Rapid expansion; added over 100 warheads in recent years
AI & Cyber Warfare	Developing niche capabilities	Operational use in predictive targeting, surveillance, and cyber ops
Quantum Tech & ASAT	In the nascent R&D phase	Clear lead; battlefield digitisation and counter-space systems evolving

Strategic Roadmap for Resolution

Border Infrastructure and Defence Modernisation: Prioritise BRO infrastructure development along the LAC and increase defence spending to at least 3% of GDP, focusing on cyber, aerospace, and high-altitude warfare capabilities.
Comprehensive China Strategy: Formulate a National China Strategy Document integrating security, diplomacy, technology, and trade to guide long-term engagement and assert India’s red lines.
Strategic Autonomy with Smart Alignments: Enhance cooperation with like-minded partners (E.g., QUAD, France, Japan) while maintaining India’s multi-alignment strategy amid US-China rivalry.
Economic and Technological De-risking: Strengthen PLI schemes and Semicon India to reduce reliance on Chinese imports and regulate Chinese digital platforms for data sovereignty.
Assertive Regional and Maritime Diplomacy: Revive neighbourhood diplomacy and implement the SAGAR doctrine to counter China’s influence in South Asia and the Indian Ocean.

India’s China challenge is a border management issue and a deeper strategic and civilisational contest shaping the Asian power equilibrium. Symbolic diplomacy and disengagement talks cannot substitute the imperative of hard power, strategic coherence, and regional leadership.

India must adopt a calibrated approach—combining military preparedness, technological self-reliance, neighbourhood engagement, and multi-aligned diplomacy.

Reference: The Hindu | PMFIAS: India-China Relations

UPSC Mains PYQs – Theme – India-China Relations

[UPSC 2022] Critically examine the role of India in the emerging global order in the backdrop of COVID-19 and growing US-China tensions.
[UPSC 2021] Evaluate India’s position in the Indo-Pacific against the backdrop of increasing Chinese assertiveness.
[UPSC 2020] “The India-China relationship has elements of cooperation as well as competition.” Discuss in the context of recent tensions on the LAC.
[UPSC 2017] “The growing China-Pakistan nexus poses a serious threat to India’s regional strategic interests.” Comment.
[UPSC 2013] Discuss the military and strategic significance of the Sino-Indian border disputes.

PMF IAS Pathfinder for Mains – Question 150

Q. How can India navigate its strategic autonomy while addressing the growing influence of China in its immediate neighbourhood and the broader Indo-Pacific region? (250 Words) (15 Marks)

Approach

Introduction: Highlight India’s strategic autonomy as a key element of its foreign policy, alongside the challenge posed by China’s assertiveness in the LAC and Indo-Pacific.
Body: Discuss India’s strategic autonomy versus Chinese assertiveness and outline a way forward..
Conclusion: India should combine strategic autonomy with innovative partnerships and technological self-reliance to effectively address the China challenge and stabilise the Indo-Pacific.