Which of the following countries are frequently mentioned in the media for their low birth rates, or ageing population or declining population? Italy? Japan? Nigeria? [2024]

Consider the following countries:

Countries such as Japan, Italy, and South Korea are frequently highlighted in the media for facing challenges related to low birth rates, ageing populations, or overall population decline.
- In Italy, the average number of children per woman fell from 1.24 in 2022 to 1.2 in 2023, as per government data. Experts warn that if the current demographic trend persists, Italy’s population — currently around 59 million — could shrink by nearly 1 million by 2030.
- Japan reported a decline in births for the eighth consecutive year in 2023, setting yet another record low.
- In South Korea, government figures indicate an 8% drop in the fertility rate in 2023 compared to the previous year. (South Korea’s birthrate rose in 2024 for the first time in nine years).

Both fertility rate and birth rate are indicators of population growth, but they are not the same. The fertility rate indicates the average number of children a woman of childbearing age is expected to have; a fertility rate of 2.1 is considered the “replacement rate.” On the other hand, the birth rate measures the number of live births occurring each year for every 1,000 people in a given population. The total fertility rate is essential for ensuring a stable population over time, as it allows each generation to replace itself, while the birth rate provides insights into the speed at which a population is expanding.

Nigeria has a high population growth rate at 2.4%, which is sustained by high fertility at about 5.2 children per woman. The country has the world’s largest youth population and a median age of 18.1 years. About 70% of the population is under 30, and 42% is under the age of 15.
South Africa’s fertility rate is above the replacement level of 2.1.