India’s Updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)
- India is set to submit its new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for the period up to 2035 under the Paris Agreement. To credibly advance its energy transition and decarbonisation pathway, a seven-point strategy has been outlined to guide India’s climate planning for the next decade.
About Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)
- NDC is a non-binding climate action plan to cut emissions and adapt to climate impacts. It describes a country’s national policies or decisions toward reaching net-zero emissions.
- Article 4 of the Paris Agreement requires Parties to prepare, communicate, and maintain successive NDCs and adopt domestic measures to achieve them.
- New and progressively ambitious NDCs must be submitted every 5 years, in sync with the Global Stocktake cycle.
- First NDC cycle (targets up to 2025 or 2030) was submitted in 2015-16; the second NDC (2030) was due in 2020; the third round will set targets up to 2035.
Seven-Point Plan to Scale Up India’s Climate Ambition
Higher Target for Emissions Intensity Reduction
- The proposal suggests a 65% reduction in emissions intensity by 2035, signalling a shift from incremental to accelerated decarbonisation.
- Announcing an emissions-peaking year (around 2035) would counter criticism that India’s emissions continue to rise, despite being the third-largest global emitter.
Raising Non-Fossil Capacity
- From achieving 50% non-fossil capacity by 2030, India is now positioned to target 80% by 2035.
- Total generation capacity is estimated to reach 1,600 GW.
- The share of renewables in electricity supply could expand from 13.5% today to 50% by 2035.
- Large-scale integration will require grid expansion, modern evacuation corridors, and storage capacity rising from <1 GW to ~170 GW.
Phasing Down Unabated Coal
- A pragmatic middle path is proposed, with no new coal-based power plants after 2030, capacity peaks around 293 GW by 2030, declining to 230 GW by 2040.
- Coal phase-down is non-negotiable for a net-zero trajectory by 2070.
- Just transition is critical; coal states (Jharkhand, Odisha, Chhattisgarh) must begin skill retraining, industrial diversification, and the development of social protection frameworks.
Accelerating Electrification of Mobility and Transport
- Railways: Near-complete electrification of tracks now needs to translate into near-100% electric traction by 2035, retiring diesel locomotion.
- Urban mobility: 50% electric buses in fleets; 100% electric three-wheelers achievable in the short term.
Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS)
- Operational from April 2026, CCTS is India’s entry into market-based emissions regulation.
- Post-implementation review (after two years) could expand coverage to power and mid-scale industries.
- Initial norms are flexible but are expected to tighten progressively, aligning industry strategy with the net-zero goal.
Redesigning Electricity Pricing and Markets
- Variable renewables demand time-of-day pricing, flexible procurement, and exchange-based trading.
- Consumer price acceptance will require behavioural communication, subsidy redesign, and transparent transition pathways.
Financing the Green Transition
- Estimated capital investment is $62 billion annually during 2026-2035 (~0.84% of GDP).
- 80% domestic financing, higher savings, private capital, and sovereign green bonds.
- 20% global capital (~$12.5 billion annually) via MDBs, equity funds, and risk-mitigated climate finance.
